Bitcoin prediction markets have been online for years, but it is less likely to find events that bear bets amounting to hundreds of Bitcoin, even more so over a thousand. A BitBet.us event proves otherwise.
Titled ‘Bitcoin to surpass Berkshire as an investment’, this event that began receiving bets on March 16 last year has already recorded more than 4,000 BTC.
According to the condition, a positive resolution will only be acquired if the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) share on the NYSE on March 17 of this year will be lower than the USD value of 314.59764223 BTC. Otherwise, the resolve will be a No, and all the bettors who wagered on No will win.
A total of 2,971.30 BTC have been wagered on the No option as compared to the 1,121.15 BTC bet on the Yes as of writing. With the BTC price currently sitting at around $270 per coin and the BRK-A share trading at more than $220,000 into 2015, a negative resolution is likely to occur, especially with only a month and a week left to go before the event closes.
‘No’ bettors to win less
However, unlike in winning in a Bitcoin casino where every win tastes like a sweet victory, bettors who wagered on No will end up receiving lesser than they had previously anticipated several months back in case the event resolves as No.
The reason behind this is the fact that some free Bitcoin casino sites like BitBet.us works on the concept of weighted bets, which means that future bets will significantly affect the potential winnings previous bettors are likely to receive.
Toward the end of 2014, a series of large bets on No have been counted in, totaling to approximately 2,000 BTC.
There have been speculations online that the person who wagered that amount on the No option is the same one who betted 1,000 BTC on Yes to cut the losses after realizing that Bitcoin is far from surpassing the BRK-A share.