Once limited to just sporting events, making Bitcoin bets on future events is becoming a popular betting option. Prediction markets like BetMoose, Predictious, and others are at the forefront of this brand new frontier in Bitcoin games and bets. People can expect this field to widen even more as the beta for Augur sees release.
Developed to harness the ‘wisdom of the crowd,’ prediction markets are meant to help in predicting the outcome of world events by looking at how people bet. This is different from asking people in a survey about their opinion about a subject.
In a market, the buyer is asked for what they think would be the most likely result and not their personal opinion. This aggregate wisdom of the bets is then pooled to see what is generally agreed upon result. This does not mean that the system is fool-proof. There is still a margin of error, but many analysts say that a prediction market is a lot more accurate than any poll.
Political and economic bets
The earliest prediction markets were aimed at predicting the result of presidential elections. This is why a lot of prediction markets nowadays are currently focused on the biggest event in politics: the 2016 US presidential election. In the past few months, the markets went wild with predictions about the Republican primaries. With a whole mass of candidates running for the Republican presidential nomination, it was a prime betting season.
As the primaries run their course, the Republican field has been trimmed down to four nominees: Trump, Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich are fighting it out, with Trump as the clear leader. For the Democrats, it is Clinton and Sanders in a close struggle. Quite a few bets are placed on the primary results. The most popular options are those on whether Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump wins this November.
Politics are not the only topics that the markets focus on. Economic bets are also a particular favorite. Considering many of these markets use Bitcoin, bets on the status of Bitcoin price are a frequent choice on the market. Predictions of Bitcoin hitting a new high within the year are optimistic, although more realistic options do exist.
Less serious predictions
Going beyond politics and economics, Bitcoin prediction markets can also take a look at less heavy topics. Leonardo DiCaprio’s recent Oscar win was a hot betting topic but with that over, other bets are becoming popular. In the entertainment scene, predictions are mostly focused on the upcoming summer movie season. With highly-anticipated blockbusters like Superman vs. Batman and Captain America: Civil War slated to be released, bets on potential box office earnings dominate some betting markets.
Additionally, an impressive feature of these markets is that they can allow users to make their own events. This has resulted in events on the result of Wrestlemania XXXII and possible spoilers on the new season of Game of Thrones.
Prediction markets show a potential new field of betting options for online gamblers. With more entries into the field like Augur, people may find futures markets—specifically Bitcoin bets on future events—an acceptable option.