Prediction Market Odds: Sports and Crypto Markets Explained

A prediction market lets traders buy contracts that pay out if an event happens. The price of a YES contract works as the market’s implied probability: a contract trading at 21 cents implies roughly a 21% chance. We cover sports and crypto markets when trading volume or the odds move sharply, and explain what is behind the move.

How we cover a market

Each page names the market and the platform, states the odds with the date they were taken, and checks the real-world story behind the move against at least two independent news sources. We also convert the implied probability into decimal, fractional and American odds, so you can compare it with the way a sportsbook would quote the same outcome. Bookmakers build a margin into their prices, so their odds on the same result are usually shorter than a fair conversion.

Platforms and play money

Real-money platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi restrict who can trade by country, so check their terms for where you live. Manifold uses play money, and its prices reflect what its community thinks rather than where real money is being placed.

Before you trade or bet

Prediction markets and betting both carry risk, and odds are never a promise. Only stake money you can afford to lose, set limits first, and read our responsible gambling page if it stops being fun. For crypto sportsbooks, see our guide to crypto sports betting.